Genesis India Consumer Indicator 61.71 in August compared with 62.44 in July Early August Interest Rate Hike Dents Real Estate Sentiment
- The Genesis India Consumer Indicator (GICI) fell to 61.71 in August from the record high of 62.44 seen in July.
- Four out of the five components that comprise the GICI decreased between July and August, with only a bounce back in the durable buying conditions component stopping a larger fall. Respondents’ views on current business conditions worsened significantly in August, by 6.7% to 36.87, to the lowest since April. There were smaller falls in both current and future personal finances.
- The reduction in the rate of GST at the end of July caused a significant fall in durables buying last month as consumers postponed their purchases. August saw a partial bounce back, although the durable buying conditions indicator remains below the levels seen in the second quarter. The outlook for the next three months, however, improved further to the highest on record.
- Our survey suggests that the strong run of automotive sales since the start of the year could well continue as consumers reported even greater optimism about car buying conditions. The automotive purchase indicator rose to 67.36 in August from 63.51 in July and expectations for the next three months leapt to 80.4 from 72.88.
- The 25 basis points increase in the repo rate to 6.5% on 1st August appears to have dented optimism in the housing market. The real estate indicator declined to 46.22 in August from 52.32 in July, the lowest since January, indicating fewer respondents thought it was a good time to buy real estate.
- The results of a number of special questions on the footwear market this month showed that Bata was the favorite brand of footwear by a significant margin. Adidas and Reebok were joint second favorite brands.
Chief Economist of GMMR, Philip Uglow, said “Consumer sentiment remains buoyant despite the small fall seen in August. Buying conditions around consumer durables and especially autos remain very buoyant with few signs of cooling in the short-term. The latest rise in interest rates, though, does appear to have dented optimism in the housing market and also had a small negative impact on personal finances.”